Today’s Market Update

Treasuries Retreat From Highs as Stocks Jump From Cash Open

By Edward Bolingbroke

(Bloomberg) —

Treasuries pare early gains following strong start for equities from the cash open as S&P e-minis test highs reached in Europe session; curve holds steepening move driven by IG deal flow amid announcement of Fox multi-tranche bond issuance.

  • Energy among best performing sectors from 9:30am ET as WTI futures briefly rally through $52/bbl; S&P 500 higher by ~0.6% despite futures trading soft in early session following JPMorgan earnings miss
  • In Treasuries, morning flows included real money buying across belly of the curve, New York-based trader says; 5s30s topped at 56.4bp in early U.S. session, which was steepest level since February 2018
  • Some information comes from rates traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly

To contact the reporter on this story:
Edward Bolingbroke in New York at ebolingbrok1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net
Greg Chang

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month2.428%2.409%
6 Month2.505%2.535%
2 Year2.526%2.733%
5 Year2.514%2.731%
10 Year2.701%2.889%
30 Year3.066%3.143%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME5.50%
DJIA24,019.27
Crude Oil$51.71
YEN108.51
Gold$1,294.53
1 Year CMT2.56%
1 Month LIBOR2.51%
Fed Funds Effective2.40%
Next FOMC MeetingJanuary 29-30, 2019
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
1/15/2019 Empire Manufacturing Jan10.03.910.911.5
PPI Final Demand MoMDec -0.1%-0.2%0.1%
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMDec0.2%-0.1%0.3%
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoMDec0.2%0.0%0.3%
PPI Final Demand YoYDec2.5%2.5%2.5%
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYDec3.0%2.7%2.7%
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY Dec 2.8%2.8%
1/15-1/18/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance Nov -$76.1b-$77.2b-$77.0b
Wholesale Inventories MoMNov 0.5%0.8%
Retail Inventories MoMNov0.9%0.8%
New Home SalesNov567k544k
New Home Sales MoMNov 4.2%-8.9%
Construction Spending MoMNov 0.2%-0.1%
Factory OrdersNov0.3%-2.3%
Factory Orders Ex Trans Nov 0.3%
Durable Goods OrdersNov 0.8%0.8%
Durable Goods TransportationNov -0.3%
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AiNov -0.6%
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Nov -0.1%
Monthly Budget Statement Dec -$10.0b-$204.9b
Trade BalanceNov-$54.0b-$55.5b
1/16/2019MBA Mortgage Applications Jan 1123.5%
Retail sales data postponed by gov't shutdown
Import Price Index MoM Dec -1.3%-1.6%
Import Price Index ex Petrole Dec -0.1%-0.3%
Import Price Index YoYDec -0.9%0.7%
Export Price Index MoMDec -0.7%-0.9%
Export Price Index YoYDec 1.8%
Business Inventories Nov0.3%0.6%
NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 5656
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
TIC Flows data postponed by gov't shutdown
1/16-1/22/2019Wholesale Inventories MoMNov 0.5%
Wholesale Trade Sale MoMNov -0.2%
1/17/2019Housing Starts MoMDec -0.5%3.2%
Building Permits MoMDec -2.9%5.0%
Building Permits Dec1288k1328k
Housing Starts Dec 1252k1256k
Philadelphia Fed Business OutlJan10.09.49.1
Initial Jobless ClaimsJan 12220k216k
Continuing Claims Jan 5 1738k1722k
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jan 1358.5
Bloomberg Economic Expectations Jan 50.0
1/17-1/25/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMDec 0.0%0.2%
Retail Sales Control Group Dec 0.4%0.9%
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Dec 0.4%0.5%
Retail Sales Advance MoMDec0.1%0.2%
Total Net TIC Flows Nov $42.0b
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov $31.3b
1/18/2019Industrial Production MoMDec0.2%0.6%
Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionDec 0.3%0.0%
Capacity Utilization Dec 78.5%78.5%
U. of Mich. Sentiment Jan 96.898.3
U. of Mich. Current ConditionsJan 116.1
U. of Mich. ExpectationsJan 87.0
U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationJan2.7%
U. of Mich. 5-10 InflationJan2.5%
Source: Bloomberg