Today’s Market Update

Coronavirus Concerns Mount and Jobs Numbers are Released
2020-07-02

This morning, Treasury yields edged higher and equity indexes rose at the open.  Yesterday, the number of new US coronavirus cases hit a new record, more than 50,000 new cases.  While this is likely partially attributable to higher levels of testing, concerns about the virus’ impact to public health and the economy continue to build as numerous states are seeing surges in new cases.  Later this morning, new jobless claims data and an updated unemployment number will be released and provide insight into how the gradual reopening has gone.  Currently, the number of confirmed global COVID-19 cases has passed 10.7 million, including more than 2.6 million cases and over 129,000 deaths in the US.  The 10-Year Treasury note yield rose to 0.67%, while the price of oil edged up to $40.01, and the price of gold moved higher to $1,777.38.

– CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.13%0.14%
6 Month0.15%0.16%
2 Year0.15%0.16%
5 Year0.30%0.32%
10 Year0.67%0.68%
30 Year1.43%1.49%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA25,987.25
Crude Oil (WTI)$40.01
YEN107.5900
Gold$1,777.38
1 Year CMT0.15%
1 Month LIBOR0.1663%
Fed Funds Effective0.08%
Next FOMC MeetingJuly 28-29th, 2020
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
06/29Pending Home Sales (MoM)May18.9%44.3%-21.8%
Pending Home Sales IndexMay99.669.0
Dallas Fed Manuf. Business IndexJun-6.1-49.2
06/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City S.A. (MoM)Apr0.5%0.3%0.5%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City N.S.A. (MoM)Apr0.9%1.1%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City N.S.A. (YoY)Apr4.0%4.0%3.9%
Chicago PMI Jun45.036.632.3
Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceJun91.898.186.685.9
07/01MBA Mortgage Applications24-Jun-1.8%-8.7%
Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)Jun305.5%577.8%
ADP Nonfarm Employment ChangeJun3,000k2,369k3k3,065k
Manufacturing PMIJun49.649.839.8
Construction Spending (MoM)May1.0%-2.1%-2.9%-3.5%
ISM Manuf. EmploymentJun43.042.132.1
ISM Manuf. New OrdersJun56.431.8
ISM Manuf. PMIJun49.552.643.1
ISM Manuf. PricesJun43.051.340.8
Total Vehicle SalesJun13.00m13.10m12.20m
FOMC Meeting Minutes Released
07/02Initial Jobless Claims25-Jun1,350k1,427k1,480k1,482k
Continuing Claims18-Jun19,000k19,290k19,522k19,231k
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Jun5.3%5.0%6.7%6.6%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Jun-0.7%-1.2%-1.0%
Average Weekly HoursJun34.534.534.7
Manufacturing PayrollsJun311k356k225k250k
Nonfarm PayrollsJun3,000k4,800k2,509k2,699k
Private Nonfarm PayrollsJun2,900k4,767k3,094k3,232k
Labor Force Participation RateJun61.5%60.8%
Unemployment RateJun12.3%11.1%13.3%
U6 Unemployment RateJun18.0%21.2%
ISM NY Business ConditionsJun39.5%19.5%
Durables ex. Defense (MoM)May15.3%15.5%
Factory Orders (MoM)May8.9%8.0%-13.0%-13.5%
Factory Orders ex Transport. (MoM)May2.6%-8.5%-8.9%
Source: Bloomberg