Today’s Market Update

Dow Hits Record High; Yellen Nominated for Treasury Secretary 
2020-11-25

This morning equity markets pared gains after hitting new record highs in both the DJIA and S&P 500 on Tuesday and Treasuries yields edged sideways.  As the transition of power from the Trump administration to President-Elect Biden’s incoming team begins Biden has announced he will pick Janet Yellen for his Treasury Secretary. Yellen was the Chair of the Federal Reserve before current Chair Powell, and her selection has received broad optimism from market participants and economists.  However, the US continues to hit new highs for daily cases and hospitalizations from the surge in COVID-19 cases across the country, despite the efforts to limit the trend.  The recent vaccine developments suggest that around mid-2021 a vaccine for the coronavirus will be widely available across the population and that the first vaccinations may take place as soon as next month.  Nonetheless, the current spread will continue to put additional strain on households and small businesses, particularly as guidelines restricting normal activity are implemented in areas where the spread is high.

-CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.08%0.09%
6 Month0.09%0.11%
2 Year0.16%0.16%
5 Year0.38%0.38%
10 Year0.87%0.85%
30 Year1.60%1.64%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA29,912.80
Crude Oil (WTI)$45.40
YEN104.3600
Gold$1,811.80
1 Year CMT0.10%
1 Month LIBOR0.1430%
Fed Funds Effective0.08%
Next FOMC MeetingDecember 15-16th, 2020
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
11/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexOct0.270.830.270.32
Markit US Manufacturing PMINov53.056.753.4
Markit US Services PMINov55.057.756.9
Markit US Composite PMINov57.956.3
11/24FHFA House Price Index MoMSep0.8%1.7%1.5%
House Price Purchases Index QoQSep3.1%0.8%1.0%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SASep0.7%1.3%0.5%1.4%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSASep5.1%6.6%5.2%5.3%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA IndexSep232.53229.35229.68
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSASep6.96%5.71%5.81%
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA IndexSep226.8223.9224.2
Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceNov98.096.1100.9101.4
Conf. Board Present SituationNov105.9104.6106.2
Conf. Board ExpectationsNov89.598.498.2
Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexNov201529
11/25MBA Mortgage ApplicationsNov 203.9%-0.3%
Initial Jobless ClaimsNov 21730k778k742k748k
Continuing ClaimsNov 146,000k6,071k6,372k6,370k
Advance Goods Trade BalanceOct-$80.4b-$80.3b-$79.4b
Wholesale Inventories MoMOct0.4%0.9%0.4%0.7%
Retail Inventories MoMOct0.6%0.8%1.6%1.7%
GDP Annualized QoQQ333.1%33.1%33.1%
Personal ConsumptionOct40.9%40.6%40.7%
GDP Price IndexQ33.6%3.6%3.6%
Core PCE QoQQ33.5%3.5%3.5%
Durable Goods OrdersOct0.8%1.3%1.9%2.1%
Durables Ex TransportationOct0.5%1.3%0.9%1.5%
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirOct0.5%0.7%1.0%1.9%
Cap Goods ShipNondef Ex AirOct0.4%2.3%0.5%0.7%
Bloomberg Consumer ComfortOct49.649.8
Personal IncomeOct0.1%-0.7%0.9%0.7%
Personal SpendingOct0.4%0.5%1.4%1.2%
Real Personal SpendingOct0.3%0.5%1.2%1.1%
PCE Deflator MoMOct0.0%0.1%0.2%
PCE Deflator YoYOct1.2%1.2%1.4%
PCE Core Deflator MoMOct0.1%0.0%0.2%
PCE Core Deflator YoYOct1.4%1.4%1.5%1.6%
New Home SalesOct970k999k959k1,002k
New Home Sales MoMOct1.5%-0.3%-3.5%0.1%
U. of Mich. SentimentNov77.076.981.8
U. of Mich. Current ConditionsNov85.887.085.9
U. of Mich. ExpectationsNov71.370.579.2
U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationNov2.8%2.8%2.6%
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationNov2.6%2.5%2.4%
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Source: Bloomberg