Today’s Market Update
Headwinds on Stimulus Package and New Travel Restrictions
2021-01-25
This morning equity markets edged higher and the Treasury curve fell modestly, although the 10-year Treasury yield continues to hold above 1.0%. The Biden administration is facing challenges from a bipartisan group in Congress about the size of the their proposed ~$1.9 billion stimulus package. While, this appears likely to succeed with Democrats holding the majority in both houses of Congress, Biden has stated he would prefer bipartisan support and resistance from moderate Republicans appears to be growing. The success in implementing the administrations new coronavirus policies along with the final details of further stimulus will be particularly important as the US continues to mark new highs in daily COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations remains at or near record levels. To date, the US has recorded over 25.1 million coronavirus cases and more than 419,000 deaths according to data from John Hopkins.
-CMS Staff
Treasury Yields
| Term | Current | Last Month |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 0.07% | 0.08% |
| 6 Month | 0.08% | 0.09% |
| 2 Year | 0.12% | 0.12% |
| 5 Year | 0.41% | 0.37% |
| 10 Year | 1.04% | 0.92% |
| 30 Year | 1.80% | 1.67% |
Source: Bloomberg
Benchmarks
| PRIME | 3.25% |
| DJIA | 30,816.35 |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $52.30 |
| YEN | 103.8000 |
| Gold | $1,855.33 |
| 1 Year CMT | 0.09% |
| 1 Month LIBOR | 0.1248% |
| Fed Funds Effective | 0.08% |
| Next FOMC Meeting | January 26-27th, 2021 |
Economic Indicator Calendar
| Date | Event | Period | Surv (M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/25 | Chicago Fed National Activity | Dec | 0.10 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Dallas Fed Manuf. Business Index | Jan | 12.0 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 10.5 | |
| 01/26 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | Nov | 0.8% | 1.5% | ||
| S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | Nov | 8.6% | 7.9% | |||
| S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | Nov | 1.0% | 1.6% | |||
| S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | Nov | 9.0% | 8.4% | |||
| Conf. Board Expectations | Jan | 87.5 | ||||
| Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | Jan | 89.0 | 88.6 | |||
| Conf. Board Present Situation | Jan | 90.3 | ||||
| Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | Jan | 19 | 19 | |||
| 01/27 | MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan 22 | -1.9% | |||
| Durable Goods Orders | Dec | 1.0% | 1.0% | |||
| Durables Ex Transportation | Dec | 0.5% | 0.4% | |||
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Dec | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Dec | 0.6% | 0.5% | |||
| FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | Jan | 0.25% | 0.25% | |||
| FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | Jan | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||
| Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | Jan | 0.10% | 0.10% | |||
| 01/28 | Initial Jobless Claims | Jan 23 | 875k | 900k | ||
| Continuing Claims | Jan 16 | 5,054k | 5,054k | |||
| Advance Goods Trade Balance | Dec | -$84.0b | -$84.8b | |||
| Retail Inventories MoM | Dec | 0.6% | 0.7% | |||
| Wholesale Inventories MoM | Dec | 0.5% | 0.0% | |||
| Personal Consumption | Q4 | 3.0% | 41.0% | |||
| GDP Annualized QoQ | Q4 | 4.0% | 33.4% | |||
| Core PCE QoQ | Q4 | 1.5% | 3.4% | |||
| Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | Jan | 43.7 | ||||
| Leading Index | Jan | 0.3% | 0.6% | |||
| New Home Sales | Jan | 866k | 841k | |||
| New Home Sales MoM | Jan | 2.9% | -11.0% | |||
| KC Fed Composite Index | Jan | 12 | 14 | |||
| 01/29 | Personal Income | Dec | 0.1% | -1.1% | ||
| Personal Spending | Dec | -0.4% | -0.4% | |||
| Employment Cost Index | Dec | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||
| Real Personal Spending | Dec | -0.6% | -0.4% | |||
| PCE Deflator MoM | Dec | 0.3% | 0.0% | |||
| PCE Deflator YoY | Dec | 1.2% | 1.1% | |||
| PCE Core Deflator MoM | Dec | 0.1% | 0.0% | |||
| PCE Core Deflator YoY | Dec | 1.3% | 1.4% | |||
| MNI Chicago PMI | Jan | 58.3 | 59.5 | 58.7 | ||
| Pending Home Sales MoM | Dec | -0.1% | -1.1% | -2.6% | ||
| Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | Dec | 16.0% | ||||
| U. of Mich. Sentiment | Jan | 79.2 | 79.2 | |||
| U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Jan | 87.7 | ||||
| U. of Mich. Expectations | Jan | 73.8 | ||||
| U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Jan | 3.00% | ||||
| U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Jan | 2.70% |