Today’s Market Update

Headwinds on Stimulus Package and New Travel Restrictions  
2021-01-25

This morning equity markets edged higher and the Treasury curve fell modestly, although the 10-year Treasury yield continues to hold above 1.0%.  The Biden administration is facing challenges from a bipartisan group in Congress about the size of the their proposed ~$1.9 billion stimulus package.  While, this appears likely to succeed with Democrats holding the majority in both houses of Congress, Biden has stated he would prefer bipartisan support and resistance from moderate Republicans appears to be growing.  The success in implementing the administrations new coronavirus policies along with the final details of further stimulus will be particularly important as the US continues to mark new highs in daily COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations remains at or near record levels.  To date, the US has recorded over 25.1 million coronavirus cases and more than 419,000 deaths according to data from John Hopkins.

-CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.07%0.08%
6 Month0.08%0.09%
2 Year0.12%0.12%
5 Year0.41%0.37%
10 Year1.04%0.92%
30 Year1.80%1.67%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA30,816.35
Crude Oil (WTI)$52.30
YEN103.8000
Gold$1,855.33
1 Year CMT0.09%
1 Month LIBOR0.1248%
Fed Funds Effective0.08%
Next FOMC MeetingJanuary 26-27th, 2021
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
01/25Chicago Fed National ActivityDec0.100.520.270.31
Dallas Fed Manuf. Business IndexJan12.07.09.710.5
01/26FHFA House Price Index MoMNov0.8%1.5%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSANov8.6%7.9%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SANov1.0%1.6%
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSANov9.0%8.4%
Conf. Board ExpectationsJan87.5
Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceJan89.088.6
Conf. Board Present SituationJan90.3
Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexJan1919
01/27MBA Mortgage ApplicationsJan 22-1.9%
Durable Goods OrdersDec1.0%1.0%
Durables Ex TransportationDec0.5%0.4%
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirDec0.5%0.5%
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirDec0.6%0.5%
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)Jan0.25%0.25%
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)Jan0.00%0.00%
Interest Rate on Excess ReservesJan0.10%0.10%
01/28Initial Jobless ClaimsJan 23875k900k
Continuing ClaimsJan 165,054k5,054k
Advance Goods Trade BalanceDec-$84.0b-$84.8b
Retail Inventories MoMDec0.6%0.7%
Wholesale Inventories MoMDec0.5%0.0%
Personal ConsumptionQ43.0%41.0%
GDP Annualized QoQQ44.0%33.4%
Core PCE QoQQ41.5%3.4%
Bloomberg Consumer ComfortJan43.7
Leading IndexJan0.3%0.6%
New Home SalesJan866k841k
New Home Sales MoMJan2.9%-11.0%
KC Fed Composite IndexJan1214
01/29Personal IncomeDec0.1%-1.1%
Personal SpendingDec-0.4%-0.4%
Employment Cost IndexDec0.5%0.5%
Real Personal SpendingDec-0.6%-0.4%
PCE Deflator MoMDec0.3%0.0%
PCE Deflator YoYDec1.2%1.1%
PCE Core Deflator MoMDec0.1%0.0%
PCE Core Deflator YoYDec1.3%1.4%
MNI Chicago PMIJan58.359.558.7
Pending Home Sales MoMDec-0.1%-1.1%-2.6%
Pending Home Sales NSA YoYDec16.0%
U. of Mich. SentimentJan79.279.2
U. of Mich. Current ConditionsJan87.7
U. of Mich. ExpectationsJan73.8
U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationJan3.00%
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationJan2.70%
Source: Bloomberg