Today’s Market Update

Treasuries Tick Higher Following Thursdays Sell-off
2021-04-16

This morning equity markets moved higher and Treasury yields ticked up following yesterdays sell-off and the 10-year yield remains below 1.6%.  Yesterday’s sell-off was unexpected given the robust results reported in the labor market and in retail sales.  Over the past month the positive trends in economic indicators are boosting optimism about the economic rebound, further supported by the continuing US vaccination rollout.  Beginning next Monday, all American adults will be eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.  To date, over 25% of citizens have received at least one shot of a COVID-19 vaccine and at the current pace of ~3 million vaccine shots a day, 75% of the population should be vaccinated by mid-late summer.  However, some concern about new virus variants remains and new cases are still fairly common.  To date, the US has recorded over 31.4 million coronavirus cases and more than 565,000 deaths according to data from John Hopkins.

-CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.01%0.01%
6 Month0.04%0.05%
2 Year0.16%0.15%
5 Year0.83%0.83%
10 Year1.59%1.63%
30 Year2.28%2.38%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA34,150.22
Crude Oil (WTI)$62.98
YEN108.8400
Gold$1,777.84
1 Year CMT0.06%
1 Month LIBOR0.1150%
Fed Funds Effective0.07%
Next FOMC MeetingApril 27-28th, 2021
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
04/12Federal Budget BalanceMar-$658.0b-$660.0b-$311.0b
04/13NFIB Small Business OptimismMar98.295.8
Core CPI MoMMar0.2%0.3%0.1%
Core CPI YoYMar1.5%1.6%1.3%
Core CPI IndexMar271.21270.30
CPI MoMMar0.5%0.6%0.4%
CPI YoYMar2.5%2.6%1.7%
CPI Index NSAMar264.69264.88263.01
CPI Index SAMar264.79263.16
CPI NSA MoMMar0.71%0.55%
Real Earnings MoMMar0.1%0.1%-1.0%-1.2%
Cleveland CPI MoMMar0.2%0.2%
04/14MBA Mortgage ApplicationsApr 7-3.7%-5.1%
Export Price Index YoYMar9.1%5.2%
Export Price Index MoMMar1.0%2.1%1.6%
Import Price Index YoYMar6.9%3.0%
Import Price Index MoMMar1.0%1.2%1.3%
04/15Initial Jobless ClaimsApr 8700k576k744k769k
Continuing ClaimsApr 13,700k3,731k3,734k3,727k
Core Retail Sales MoMMar5.0%8.4%-2.7%-2.5%
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexApr19.5026.3017.40
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexApr42.050.251.8
Philly Fed Business ConditionsApr66.661.6
Philly Fed CAPEX IndexApr36.7035.90
Philly Fed EmploymentApr30.830.1
Philly Fed New OrdersApr36.050.9
Philly Fed Prices PaidApr69.1075.90
Retail Control MoMMar6.3%6.9%-3.5%-3.4%
Retail Sales YoYMar28.16%6.87%6.66%
Retail Sales MoMMar5.9%9.8%-3.0%-2.7%
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Auto MoMMar8.2%-3.3%-3.1%
Capacity Utilization RateMar75.7%74.4%73.8%73.4%
Industrial Production YoYMar1.02%-4.25%-4.77%
Industrial Production MoMMar2.8%1.4%-2.2%-2.6%
Manufacturing Production MoMMar4.0%2.7%-3.1%-3.7%
Business Inventories MoMFeb0.5%0.5%0.3%0.4%
NAHB Housing Market Index Apr838382
Retail Inventories Ex AutoFeb1.2%1.2%
Overall Net Capital FlowFeb$72.60b$106.30b$105.80b
TIC Net Long-Term TransactionsFeb$4.2b$90.8b$91.0b
04/16Building Permits MoMMar2.7%-8.8%
Building PermitsMar1.750m1.766m1.720m
Housing Starts MoMMar19.4%-10.3%-11.3%
Housing StartsMar1.613m1.739m1.421m1.457m
U. of Mich. SentimentApr89.686.584.9
U. of Mich. Current ConditionsApr96.397.293.0
U. of Mich. ExpectationsApr83.679.779.7
U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationApr3.7%3.1%
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationApr2.70%2.70%
Source: Bloomberg