Today’s Market Update

Jobs Data Suggests Strength in US Economic Recovery

This morning equity markets were mixed and Treasury yields edged lower with the 10-year yield moving back into the 1.5-1.6% range.  Today’s initial jobless claims fell to 498k below the consensus expectations of 540k and this marks a new low since the beginning of the pandemic.  Continuing jobless claims were 3,690k which was higher than the 3,620k expected.  These results continue to show improvement in the labor market and on Friday we will see payroll data which is expected to show an increase of nearly a million jobs in April.  The positive trends in economic data and the pace of the US vaccination rollout are bolstering optimism about strength of the economic recovery.  And states and local governments are continuing to ease restrictions meant to limit the spread of COVID-19 as more people are vaccinated.  So far in US over 55% US adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and all American adults are eligible to receive a vaccine.  Over the past couple weeks the pace of vaccine shots per day has fallen, as most who were eager to get the vaccine have already done so.  The Biden administration aims to have delivered at least one shot to 70% of US adults by July 4th with the goal of reaching herd immunity by late summer.  To date, the US has recorded over 32.5 million coronavirus cases and more than 579,000 deaths according to data from John Hopkins.

-CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.01%0.01%
6 Month0.03%0.03%
2 Year0.15%0.16%
5 Year0.79%0.87%
10 Year1.57%1.67%
30 Year2.25%2.34%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg


Crude Oil (WTI)$64.84
1 Year CMT0.05%
1 Month LIBOR0.1056%
Fed Funds Effective0.07%
Next FOMC MeetingJune 15-16th, 2021
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
05/03Markit Manufacturing PMIApr60.560.6
Construction Spending MoMMar1.9%0.2%-0.8%-0.6%
ISM Manufacturing EmploymentApr61.555.159.6
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexApr64.368.0
ISM Manufacturing PMIApr65.060.764.7
ISM Manufacturing PricesApr86.189.685.6
Wards Total Vehicle SalesApr18.50m17.70m
05/04Trade BalanceMar-$74.50b-$74.40b-$71.10b-$70.50b
Durables Ex Defense MoMMar0.8%0.5%
Factory Orders MoMMar1.3%1.1%-0.8%-0.5%
Factory Orders Ex Transport MoMMar1.7%-0.6%-0.2%
05/05MBA Mortgage ApplicationsApr 28-0.9%-2.5%
ADP Nonfarm Employment ChangeApr800k742k517k565k
Markit Composite PMIApr62.263.559.7
Markit Services PMIApr63.164.760.4
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIApr64.362.763.7
05/06Initial Jobless ClaimsApr 29540k498k553k590k
Continuing ClaimsApr 223,620k3,690k3,660k3,653k
Challenger Job CutsApr22.913k30.603k
Nonfarm Productivity QoQQ14.3%5.4%-4.2%-3.8%
Unit Labor Costs QoQQ1-0.8%-0.3%6.0%5.6%
Wholesale Inventories MoMApr1.4%
05/07Average Hourly Earnings YoYApr-0.3%4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings MoMApr0.1%-0.1%
Average Weekly HoursApr34.934.9
Government PayrollsApr136.0k
Manufacturing PayrollsApr58k53k
Nonfarm PayrollsApr988k916k
Participation RateApr61.5%
Private Nonfarm PayrollsApr900k780k
U6 Unemployment RateApr10.7%
Unemployment RateApr5.8%6.0%
Wholesale Trade Sales MoMMar1.0%-0.8%
Consumer CreditMar$20.00b$27.58m
Source: Bloomberg