Today’s Market Update

Markets Show Optimism as States Continue to Reopen
2020-05-26

This morning, Treasury yields edged higher and equity indexes climbed, approaching levels seen before the pandemic.  This optimism is driven primarily by hopes of a vaccine being developed quickly, as well as an anticipated increase in economic activity as US states and countries across the world continue relaxing their social distancing restrictions and guidelines.  Currently, the number of confirmed global COVID-19 cases has passed 5.6 million, including more than 1.7 million cases and nearly 100,000 deaths in the US.  The 10-Year Treasury note yield rose to 0.70%, while the price of oil edged higher to $33.81, and the price of gold was lower at $1,713.33.

– CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.12%0.11%
6 Month0.14%0.13%
2 Year0.18%0.23%
5 Year0.36%0.38%
10 Year0.70%0.60%
30 Year1.44%1.18%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA25,081.73
Crude Oil (WTI)$33.81
YEN107.5900
Gold$1,713.33
1 Year CMT0.16%
1 Month LIBOR0.1738%
Fed Funds Effective0.05%
Next FOMC MeetingJune 9-10th, 2020
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
05/26Chicago Fed National ActivityApr-16.74-4.19-4.97
House Price Index (YoY)Mar5.9%5.7%6.0%
House Price Index (MoM)Mar0.1%0.7%0.8%
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 S.A. (MoM)Mar0.2%0.5%0.4%0.5%
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 N.S.A. (MoM)Mar1.1%0.5%
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 N.S.A. (YoY)Mar3.3%3.9%3.5%
Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceApr88.086.686.985.7
New Home Sales (MoM)Apr-21.9%0.6%-15.4%-13.7%
New Home SalesApr490k623k627k619k
Dallas Fed Manuf. ActivityMay-49.2-73.7-74.0
05/27MBA Mortgage Applications22-May-2.6%
Richmond Manuf. IndexMay-53
05/28GDP (QoQ)Q1 P-4.8%-4.8%
GDP Price Index (QoQ)Q1 P1.4%1.4%
Core PCE PricesQ11.80%1.80%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM)Apr-19.0%-14.4%-15.3%
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)Apr-14.0%-0.2%-0.6%
Durables Ex. Defense (MoM)Apr-16.5%
Goods Orders Non-Def. Ex. Air (MoM)Apr-10.0%-0.8%
Initial Jobless Claims23-May2,100k2,438k
Continuing Claims16-May25,750k25,073k
Real Consumer SpendingQ1-7.6%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Apr-15.0%-20.8%
Pending Home Sales IndexApr88.2
KC Fed Manuf. IndexMay-62
05/29Core PCE Price Index (YoY)Apr1.1%1.7%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)Apr-0.3%-0.1%
Goods Trade BalanceApr-$64.38b
PCE Price Index (MoM)Apr0.3%
PCE Price Index (YoY)Apr1.3%
Personal Income (MoM)Apr-6.5%-2.0%
Personal Spending (MoMApr-12.6%-7.5%
Real Personal Consumption (MoM)Apr-7.3%
Retail Inventories Ex Auto Apr-1.0%
Wholesale Inventories (MoM)May-0.8%
Chicago PMI May40.035.4
U. of Mich. SentimentMay74.073.7
U. of Mich. Current ConditionsMay83.083.0
U. of Mich. ExpectationsMay67.767.7
U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationMay3.0%3.0%
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationMay2.60%
Source: Bloomberg