Today’s Market Update

Treasuries Bear Flatten, Off Session Lows Following Bund Rally
2019-07-19 11:32:26.552 GMT

By Edward Bolingbroke
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries sharply bear flattened in early
Asian trading Friday and broadly held that move into early U.S.
session with yields higher by up to 2.7bp across front and belly
of the curve. Some losses pared however following rally across
bunds, with Germany 10-year yields richer by 1.5bp over early
European session.
* Initial Treasuries bear flattening move sparked by New York
Fed statement clarifying that earlier speech by official John
Williams was academic in nature and “not about potential policy
actions”; market response saw Fed rate cut pricing ease
* Treasuries off worst levels of the session however, leaving
10-year yields cheaper by ~2bp at ~2.045%
** Bunds outperform as Italian bonds dropped following comments
from a League party official that Deputy PM Salvini is undecided
on holding a snap election
** Germany 10-year yields richer versus Treasuries
* UST futures volumes were solid, notably in ultra-long futures
which were running at around 15% above 20-day average levels
into 7am New York
* Fed OIS pricing shows 35bp of rate cuts priced into July
policy meeting with 76bp priced into December FOMC
* 3-month dollar Libor -1.825bp at 2.25938%; front-end flows
muted following the fix
* U.S. economic calendar includes July preliminary University of
Michigan sentiment at 10am ET
* Fed speakers slated include Bullard at 11:10am ET and
Rosengren at 4:30pm ET

To contact the reporter on this story:
Edward Bolingbroke in New York at
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Benjamin Purvis at


Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month2.051%2.159%
6 Month2.017%2.070%
2 Year1.804%1.735%
5 Year1.803%1.758%
10 Year2.050%2.023%
30 Year2.581%2.535%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg


Crude Oil$55.57
1 Year CMT1.92%
1 Month LIBOR2.2979%
Fed Funds Effective2.40%
Next FOMC MeetingJuly 30th-31st
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
07/15Empire ManufacturingJul2.04.3-8.6
07/16Import Price Index MoMJun-0.60%-0.90%-0.30%0.00%
Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMJun-0.20%-0.40%-0.30%
Import Price Index YoYJun-2.30%-2.00%-1.50%-1.10%
Export Price Index MoMJun-0.20%-0.70%-0.20%
Export Price Index YoYJun-1.60%-0.70%-0.80%
Retail Sales Advance MoMJun0.20%0.40%0.50%0.40%
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMJun0.10%0.40%0.50%0.40%
Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasJun0.30%0.70%0.50%
Retail Sales Control GroupJun0.30%0.70%0.50%0.60%
Industrial Production MoMJun0.10%0.00%0.40%
Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionJun0.30%0.40%0.20%
Capacity UtilizationJun78.10%77.90%78.10%
NAHB Housing Market IndexJun64.065.064.0
Business InventoriesMay0.30%0.30%0.50%
Net Long-term TIC FlowsMay$3.5b$46.9b
Total Net TIC FlowsMay$32.9b-$7.8b-$9.0b
07/17MBA Mortgage Applications12-Jul-1.10%-2.40%
Housing StartsJun1260k1253k1269k1265k
Housing Starts MoMJun-0.70%-0.90%-0.90%-0.40%
Building PermitsJun1300k1220k1294k1299k
Building Permits MoMJun0.10%-6.10%0.30%0.70%
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige BookJun
07/18Philadelphia Fed Business OutlookJul5.021.80.3
Initial Jobless Claims13-Jul216k216k209k208k
Continuing Claims6-Jul1700k1686k1723k1728k
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort14-Jul64.763.8
Bloomberg Economic ExpectationsJul55.050.5
Leading IndexJun0.10%-0.30%0.00%
07/19U. of Mich. SentimentJul P98.898.2
Source: Bloomberg