Today’s Market Update

Fed Remains Patient and Infrastructure Bill Advances
2021-07-29

This morning equity markets ticked higher and Treasury yields were slightly relatively unchanged with the 10-year yield holding around 1.25%.  Yesterday, the Senate passed the Biden administrations $550 billion infrastructure bill, signaling that it may be likely to pass next week.  At Fed Chair Powell’s press conference following the end of this weeks FOMC meeting, he continued to remain committed that the economy needs to see “substantial further progress” before making any significant changes in monetary policy.  The hot topics across markets remain the accelerating COVID cases and how sticky the current inflation trend will be.  Although the Fed’s updated projections from June show that they now expect to raise rates in 2023, sooner than previously expected, they do not release new projection materials until their next meeting in September.  So far in US over 57% US adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and all American adults are eligible to receive a vaccine.  To date, the US has recorded over 34.6 million coronavirus cases and more than 611,000 deaths according to data from John Hopkins.

-CMS Staff

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.04%0.04%
6 Month0.04%0.04%
2 Year0.20%0.25%
5 Year0.72%0.89%
10 Year1.25%1.47%
30 Year1.91%2.08%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA35,138.92
Crude Oil (WTI)$73.07
YEN109.5400
Gold$1,828.83
1 Year CMT0.07%
1 Month LIBOR0.0920%
Fed Funds Effective0.07%
Next FOMC MeetingSept 21-22nd, 2021
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
07/26New Home SalesJun800k676k769k724k
New Home Sales MoMJun3.5%-6.6%-5.9%-7.8%
Dallas Fed Mfg Business IndexJul27.331.1
07/27Core Durable Goods Orders MoMJun0.8%0.3%0.3%0.5%
Durable Goods Orders MoMJun2.1%0.8%2.3%3.2%
Durables Ex Defense MoMJun1.0%1.7%2.8%
Good Orders Non Defense Ex Air MoMJun0.7%0.5%0.1%0.5%
House Price Index May18.0%15.7%15.8%
House Price Index MoMMay1.7%1.8%
House Price Index YoYMay337.4331.2331.6
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 SA MoMMay1.6%1.8%1.6%1.7%
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 NSA MoMMay2.1%2.1%2.2%
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 NSA YoYMay16.4%17.0%14.9%15.0%
CB Consumer ConfidenceJul123.9129.1128.9
Richmond Manufacturing IndexJul2722
Richmond Manufacturing ShipmentsJul218
Richmond Services IndexJul1925
Dallas Fed Services RevenueJul21.716.7
Texas Services OutlookJul33.336.2
07/28MBA Mortgage ApplicationsJul 215.7%-4.0%
MBA Purchase IndexJun251.7255.8
Mortgage Market IndexJun737.9698.3
Goods Trade BalanceJun-$91.21b-$88.16b
Retail Inventories Ex AutoJun0.6%0.9%
Wholesale Inventories MoMJun0.8%1.3%
Fed Interest Rate Decision - Upper Bound0.25%0.25%0.25%
Fed Interest Rate Decision - Lower Bound0.00%0.00%0.00%
07/29Initial Jobless ClaimsJul 22380k400k419k424k
Continuing ClaimsJul 153,196k3,269k3,236k3,262k
Pending Home Sales IndexJun112.8114.7115.0
Pending Home Sales MoMJun0.3%-1.9%8.0%8.3%
GDP QoQQ28.5%6.5%6.4%6.3%
GDP Price Index QoQQ25.4%6.1%4.3%
GDP SalesQ27.7%9.2%9.1%
Core PCE Prices Q25.90%6.10%2.50%2.70%
PCE PricesQ26.4%3.7%3.8%
Real Consumer SpendingQ211.8%11.4%
07/30Core PCE Price Index MoMJun3.7%3.4%
Core PCE Price Index YoYJun0.6%0.5%
Employment Benefits QoQQ20.60%
Employment Cost Index QoQQ20.9%0.9%
Employment Wages QoQQ21.00%
PCE Price Index MoMJun0.4%
PCE Price Index YoYJun3.9%
Personal Income MoMJun-0.3%-2.0%
Personal Spending MoMJun0.7%0.9%
Real Personal Consumption MoMJun-0.4%
Chicago PMIJul64.666.1
U. of Mich. Consumer ExpectationsJul84.078.4
U. of Mich. Consumer SentimentJul80.880.8
U. of Mich. Current ConditionsJul90.784.5
U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationJul4.8%
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationJul2.90%
Dallas Fed PCEJun2.80%
Source: Bloomberg