Today’s Market Update:

“Treasuries Extend Declines; 10Y Yield Breaches Friday’s High

By Elizabeth Stanton

(Bloomberg) —

Treasuries extended declines following the futures open, sending yields to session highs including 2.986% for benchmark 10-year note, which briefly eclipsed Friday’s high before stabilizing.

  • Treasury yields continued to trail steeper increases for U.K., German and other European 10-year yields, higher by 3bp-6bp
  • U.S. rates market faces a broadly negative array of calendar items this week including 3Q refunding announcement that’s expected to include another round of auction size increases; final FOMC meeting before September when another fed funds rate increase is expected (both on Aug. 1); and key employment data that could solidify case for a fourth 2018 Fed rate increase in December; also, July 31 BOJ meeting holds risk of a policy shift that would allow Japanese 10-year yield to move higher”

Two-year Notes are up 0.8 basis points at 2.677%, five-year Notes are up 2.2 basis points at 2.861%, and the benchmark 10-Year Bond is up 2.8 basis points at 2.982%.


Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month2.043%2.007%
6 Month2.219%2.178%
2 Year2.610%2.615%
5 Year2.735%2.762%
10 Year2.855%2.860%
30 Year3.009%2.969%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg


Crude Oil$69.76
1 Year CMT2.43%
1 Month LIBOR2.07675%
Fed Funds Effective1.91%
Next FOMC MeetingAugust 1, 2018
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

7/30/2018Pending Home Sales MoMJun0.20%0.90%-0.50%
Pending Home Sales NSA YoYJunN/A-4.00%-2.80%
Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityJul31.032.336.5
7/31/2018Personal IncomeJun0.40%0.40%0.40%
Personal SpendingJun0.40%0.40%0.50%
Real Personal SpendingJun0.40%0.30%0.30%
PCE Deflator MoMJun0.10%0.10%0.20%
PCE Deflator YoYJun2.30%2.20%2.20%
PCE Core MoMJun0.10%0.10%0.20%
PCE Core YoYJun2.00%1.90%1.90%
Employment Cost Index2Q0.70%0.60%0.80%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SAMay0.20%0.20%0.16%
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSAMay6.40%6.51%6.69%
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSAMayN/A6.38%6.39%
Chicago Purchasing ManagerJul62.065.564.1
Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceJul126.0127.4126.4
8/1/2018MBA Mortgage Applications27-JulN/A-0.20%
ADP Employment ChangeJul185k177k
Markit US Manufacturing PMIJul F55.555.5
Construction Spending MoMJun0.30%0.40%
ISM ManufacturingJul59.360.2
ISM EmploymentJulN/A56
ISM Prices PaidJul75.576.8
ISM New OrdersJulN/A63.5
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1-Aug2.00%2.00%
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1-Aug1.75%1.75%
Wards Total Vehicle SalesJul17.00m17.38m
8/2/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoYJulN/A19.60%
Initial Jobless Claims28-Jul220k217k
Continuing Claims21-JulN/A1745k
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort29-JulN/A59
Factory OrdersJun0.70%0.40%
Factory Orders Ex TransJunN/A0.70%
Durable Goods OrdersJun FN/A1.00%
Durables Ex TransportationJun FN/A0.40%
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirJun FN/A0.60%
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirJun FN/A1.00%
8/3/2018Trade BalanceJun-$46.1b-$43.1b
Change in Nonfarm PayrollsJul193k213k
Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionJulN/A--
Change in Private PayrollsJul185k202k
Change in Manufact. PayrollsJul22k36k
Unemployment RateJul3.90%4.00%
Underemployment RateJulN/A7.80%
Average Hourly Earnings MoMJul0.30%0.20%
Average Hourly Earnings YoYJul2.70%2.70%
Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesJul34.534.5
Labor Force Participation RateJulN/A62.90%
Markit US Services PMIJul F56.256.2
Markit US Composite PMIJul FN/A55.9
ISM Non-Manf. CompositeJul58.659.1
Source: Bloomberg