Today’s Market Update

Treasuries Whipsaw, Curve Steepens After July CPI Beats Estimate
2020-08-12

By Edward Bolingbroke
(Bloomberg) — Treasury futures hit session lows before paring the move on elevated volumes after July CPI rose 0.6% vs 0.3% estimate with core readings also above expectations.
* 10-year note futures fell to 139-00 with 37.7k contracts changing hands over a 3-minute period; they stabilized with 10-year yields retreating from 0.69%, highest level since July 6
* Curve steepened into the drop with 2s10s reaching 52.7bp, wider by 2.9bp on the day
* USD/JPY reached session high 107.01 before retreating to under 106.90

To contact the reporter on this story:
Edward Bolingbroke in New York at ebolingbrok1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net
Elizabeth Stanton

 

Treasury Yields

Term  Current  Last Month
3 Month0.099%0.125%
6 Month0.117%0.145%
2 Year0.153%0.153%
5 Year0.290%0.306%
10 Year0.666%0.645%
30 Year1.359%1.336%
Yields updated each morning.
Source: Bloomberg

Benchmarks

PRIME3.25%
DJIA27,970.22
Crude Oil (WTI)$42.40
YEN106.7200
Gold$1,944.65
1 Year CMT0.12%
1 Month LIBOR0.1683%
Fed Funds Effective0.09%
Next FOMC MeetingSeptember 15-16th, 2020
Source: Bloomberg

Economic Indicator Calendar

DateEventPeriodSurv (M)ActualPriorRevised
08/10JOLTS Job OpeningsJun5,3005,8895,3975,371
08/11NFIB Small Business OptimismJul100.598.8100.6
PPI Final Demand MoMJul0.3%0.6%-0.2%
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJul0.1%0.5%-0.3%
PPI Ex Food, Energy Trade MoMJul0.2%0.3%0.3%
PPI Final Demand YoYJul-0.7%-0.4%-0.8%
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJul0.0%0.3%0.1%
PPI Ex Food, Energy Trade YoYJul0.1%0.1%-0.1%
08/12MBA Mortgage Applications7-Aug6.8%-5.1%
Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYJul4.3%4.6%4.7%
Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoYJul3.7%4.3%4.1%
CPI MoMJul0.3%0.6%0.6%
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJul0.2%0.6%0.2%
CPI YoYJul0.7%1.0%0.6%
CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJul1.1%1.6%1.2%
CPI Index NSAJul258.540259.101257.797
CPI Core Index SAJul266.585267.715266.065
Monthly Budget StatementJul-$137.5b-$119.7b
08/13Import Price Index MoMJul0.6%1.4%
Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMJul0.1%0.3%
Import Price Index YoYJul-3.1%-3.8%
Export Price Index MoMJul0.4%1.4%
Export Price Index YoYJul-4.4%
Initial Jobless Claims8-Aug1,100k1,186k
Continuing Claims1-Aug15,800k16,107k
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort9-Aug44.9
08/14Retail Sales Advance MoMJul2.0%7.5%
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMJul1.3%7.3%
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Jul1.0%6.7%
Retail Sales Control GroupJul0.8%5.6%
Nonfarm Productivity2Q P1.5%-0.9%
Unit Labor Costs2Q P6.9%5.1%
Industrial Production MoMJul3.0%5.4%
Capacity UtilizationJul70.3%68.6%
Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionJul3.0%7.2%
Source: Bloomberg