Market Update

Fed Continues Fight Against Inflation

This morning equity markets are up and Treasury yields flattened with the 10-year yield trading above 2.75%. The latest inflation data has come off its 40 year highs earlier this summer. And recent jobs data continues to show healthy job market conditions. Both of these factors have pushed yields up as the Fed continues rapidly tightening monetary policy, hiking rates by 75bps for a second time at their July meeting. This marks total amount of hikes this year to 2.25% and the fed has also begun to reducing the size of its balance sheet. Currently, the market expectations are for an additional rise of 1.00-0.75% in Fed Funds this year. There has been significant concern that the rapid increase in rates may send the US into a recession. The question of whether the Feds hiking of rates can tame inflation, without sending the economy into a recession remains in the front of investors minds. So far in US over 77% US adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and all American adults are eligible to receive a vaccine. To date, the US has recorded over 92.9 million coronavirus cases and more than 1,037k deaths according to data from John Hopkins.

-CMS Staff

Treasury Yields


   Term          Current      Last Month

 3 Month         2.55%            2.34%

 6 Month         3.05%            2.86%

   2 Year           3.20%            3.12%

   5 Year           2.91%            3.04%

  10 Year         2.78%            2.92%

  30 Year         3.08%            3.07%

PRIME:                                              5.50%

DJIA:                                           33,890.37

Crude Oil (WTI):                           $89.01

YEN:                                             133.2300

Gold:                                           $1,781.44

1 Year CMT:                                     3.21%

1 Month LIBOR:                        2.3869%

Fed Funds Effective:                   2.33%

Next FOMC Meeting:     Sept 20-21st, 2022

Source: Bloomberg

Economic Calendar- Week of 8/15/2022

Forecast               Actual                  Prior             Revised

8/15/2022  NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

                        NAHB Housing Market Index

                        Overall Net Capital Flow

                        TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

8/16/2022  Building Permits

                        Building Permits MoM

                        Housing Starts

                        Housing Starts MoM

                        Capacity Utilization Rate

                        Industrial Production YoY

                        Industrial Production MoM

                        Manufacturing Production MoM

8/17/2022  MBA Mortgage Applications

                        Core Retail Sales MoM

                        Retail Control MoM

                        Retail Sales MoM

                        Retail Sales YoY

                        Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM

                        Business Inventories MoM

                        Retail Inventories Ex Auto

8/18/2022  Initial Jobless Claims

                        Continuing Jobless Claims

                        Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

                        Philly Fed Business Conditions

                        Philly Fed CAPEX Index

                        Philly Fed Employment

                        Philly Fed New Orders

                        Philly Fed Prices Paid

                        Existing Home Sales

                        Existing Home Sales MoM

                        US Leading Index MoM

5.50                         -31.30                  11.10                

55                                 49                         55



1.650m                                                1.696m              


1.540m                                                1.559m


80.1%                                                     80.0%


0.3%                                                       -0.2%    

0.2%                                                        -0.5%


-0.1%                                                       1.0%

0.6%                                                         0.8%

0.1%                                                         1.0%



1.4%                                                         1.4%


265k                                                        262k                  

1,438k                                                  1,428k    

-5.0                                                         -12.3






4.89m                                                    5.12m                   


-0.5%                                                     -0.8%