MARKET UPDATE

This morning equity markets moved lower and Treasury yields ticked up with the 10-year yield trading modestly below 4.50%.  The biggest market mover this week is the return of tariff discussions to headlines as the Trump administrations deadline for negotiations of August 1st approaches.  At the June 2025 FOMC meeting, members voted again to keep the target rate unchanged.  The latest CPI data came in just below expectations, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target.  On the other hand, jobs and unemployment data has been weaker recently.  Looking ahead, expectations are for fewer cuts coming in 2025 than expected in the fall.  Beginning in early 2022, the Fed rapidly tightened monetary policy, with the cumulative amount of hikes at 5.25% through July 2023.  Only in September 2024 did the Fed begin to cut following this rapid rise.  The June 2025 forecast materials suggest that the target rate will gradually move lower through 2025.  The Fed will continue to observe the economic data and act to maintain their dual mandate of 2% inflation and full employment.  At this point in the rate cycle, the Fed prefers to be patient before lowering rates further, as the new administration works to clarify and implement its economic goals, in particular the impact and scale of the Trump administration's tariffs on major trading partners.  

- CMS Staff