Market Update
Strong Jobs Numbers After Fed's 25bp Hike
2023-02-03
This morning equity markets edged lower and Treasury yields rose with the 10-year yield trading slightly above 3.50%. The most recent inflation data continues to moderate, falling further from its 40-year highs seen last summer. New jobs data was released today and it continued to indicate a robust labor market, despite the announcements of cuts from major tech companies seen in news headlines. Since early 2022, the Fed has rapidly tightened monetary policy, with a cumulative amount of hikes this cycle now at 4.50% and the Fed has also begun reducing the size of its balance sheet. Despite this rapid rise and the positive signs seen in economic data since last summer, the Fed is remaining consistent in its message that there are likely more hikes to come and there is little chance that they lower rates later in 2023. Concern persists that the rapid increase in rates may tip the US economy into a recession. The question of whether the Fed can navigate a 'soft landing', and tame inflation without sending the economy into a recession, remains in the front of investors minds.
-CMS Staff
Treasury Yields
Benchmarks
Term Current Last Month
3 Month 4.64% 4.36%
6 Month 4.82% 4.76%
2 Year 4.28% 4.37%
5 Year 3.65% 3.90%
10 Year 3.52% 3.74%
30 Year 3.63% 3.85%
PRIME: 7.75%
DJIA: 33,922.22
Crude Oil (WTI): $73.79
YEN: 131.1200
Gold: $1,865.57
1 Year CMT: 4.74%
1 Month LIBOR: 4.5800%
Fed Funds Effective: 4.58%
Next FOMC Meeting: Mar 21-22, 2023
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar- Week of 1/30/2023
01/30/2023 Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index
01/31/2023 Employment Benefits QoQ
Employment Cost Index QoQ
Employment Wages QoQ
House Price Index YoY
House Price Index MoM
House Price Index
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 SA MoM
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 NSA YoY
S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 NSA MoM
Chicago PMI
CB Consumer Confidence
Dallas Fed Services Revenues
02/01/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Manufacturing PMI
Construction Spending MoM
ISM Manufacturing Employment
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing Prices
JOLTs Job Openings
Fed Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Statement
02/02/2023 Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
Challenger Job Cuts
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
Unit Labor Costs QoQ
Durables Ex Defense MoM
Durables Ex Transport MoM
Factory Orders MoM
Factory Orders Ex Transport MoM
02/03/2023 Average Hourly Earnings YoY
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Average Weekly Hours
Government Payrolls
Manufacturing Payrolls
Nonfarm Payrolls
Participation Rate
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
U6 Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
S&P Global Composite PMI
Services PMI
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
Forecast Actual Prior Revised
-8.4 -18.8 -20.0
0.80% 1.00%
2.6% 2.9% 3.2%
0.80% 1.00%
8.2% 9.8%
-0.4% -0.1% 0.0%
392.3 392.7 392.8
-0.6% -0.5% -0.5%
-0.8% -0.8%
6.8% 6.8% 8.6% 8.7%
45.0 44.3 44.9 45.1
109.0 107.1 108.3 109.0
4.9 -0.6
-9.0% 7.0%
178k 106k 235k 253k
46.8 46.9 46.8
-0.1% -0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
49.0 50.6 51.4 50.8
42.5 45.2 45.1
48.0 47.4 48.4
39.5 44.5 39.4
10.250m 11.012m 10.458m 10.440m
4.75% 4.75% 4.50%
200k 183k 186k
1,677k 1,655k 1,675k 1,666k
440.0% 129.1%
102.943k 43.651k
2.4% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4%
1.5% 1.1% 2.4% 2.0%
6.2% 6.3%
-0.2% -0.1%
2.3% 1.8% -1.8% -1.9%
-1.2% -0.8% -1.2%
4.3% 4.4% 4.6%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
34.3 34.7 34.3 34.4
74.0k 3.0k -9.0k
6k 19k 8k 12k
185k 517k 223k 260k
62.4% 62.3%
190k 443k 220k 269k
6.6% 6.5%
3.6% 3.4% 3.5%
46.6 46.8 46.6
46.6 46.8 46.6
54.5 60.4 54.7 53.5
50.0 49.8 49.4
60.4 45.2
50.4 55.2 49.6 49.2
67.8 67.6 68.1